london riots

[Vidéo] Insurrections augmentées : l’impact des médias sociaux sur les émeutes (updated 12/11/11)

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Le samedi 5 novembre 2011, l’association Ars Industrialis a organisé au Centre Pompidou un séminaire sur “La guerre civile numérique”. Le rencontre visait à identifier les bonnes questions relatives à ce thème, qui fait couler beaucoup d’encre depuis quelques temps (v. par ex. le livre de Paul Jorion). [Update 13 novembre 2011: la vidéo de ma présentation + les diapos sont finalement en ligne!]. La présentation est basée sur la recherche effectuée avec Paola Tubaro sur les émeutes britanniques de 2011.

Vidéo

Slides

'Blame it on Black Culture': Race, Ethnicity, and Bogus Explanations of UK Riots

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by Antonio A. Casilli and Paola Tubaro

During the last week several voices of the international blogosphere have been discussing our study on the impact of social media censorship during the August 2011 UK Riots. As you know if you have been reading our blogs, our work was based on computational methods and aimed at showing possible scenarios of civil violence. We were adamant about the fact that our intention is to provide policy-making tools and a theoretical framework, while data collection about the riots and their possible social determinants is pending.

The hunger for data produces spurious correlations

A few of our readers have been particularly concerned with the fact that, for the time being, evidence is lacking. A particularly virulent one dismissed, in the comments section of a US blog reviewing our research, our results as unsubstantiated “opinions cloaked in technology”. In the current climate of ideological polarization, such attacks are to be considered – albeit epistemologically enticing – politically motivated. As is some of the “swift evidence” the Internet is regurgitating these days.

Exhibit A: the HumStats Blog, sprung from nothing on August 15th 2011, with only one post suggestively titled ‘2011 England Riots: Statistics of Ethnicity’: a lengthy statistical tirade highlighting a “strong correlation” between the occurrence of riots and black population (unemployed black population, to be precise) while discarding other socio-economic status indicators as not significant. (The blogger’s profile ‘HumStats’ is frugal to say the least. All we know is that this person is somehow statistics-savvy, but we have no indication as to the blogger’s gender or ethnic background).

http://humstats.blogspot.com/2011/08/uk-riots-ethnicity-statistics.html

Statistics and Ethnicity: 2011 England Riots: Statistics of Ethnicity via kwout

Now, this kind of exercises in descriptive statistics is simple to grasp for everyone. Just having a look at summaries such as this one, taken from the blog post in question, an inexperienced reader might be drawn to think that the correlation is there, and – as in many a mind correlation implies causation – bang!… the Black and Afro-Caribbean population of England is automatically to blame for the recent wave of civil violence. What’s more, class conflict is nothing and, apparently, matters of social justice count for peanuts.

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Une sociologie des émeutes britanniques est (déjà) possible [Updated 01/09/11]

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(La version anglaise de ce texte est disponible ici ).

Les émeutes qui ont ébranlé la Grande-Bretagne ces derniers jours ont eu pour effet de provoquer une véritable “chasse aux sociologues”. Suite aux déclarations du maire de Londres Boris Johnson, l’amalgame entre tentatives de comprendre ces soulèvements et machinations pour les justifier s’est désormais imposé. La lettre ouverte du président de la British Sociological Association au quotidien The Guardian n’a pas renversé cette tendance : un climat de panique morale est bel et bien là.

Le billet de blog Is a social media-fuelled uprising the worst case scenario? Elements for a sociology of UK riots, co-écrit par Paola Tubaro et moi-même, n’a rien arrangé à l’affaire non plus. En nous appuyant sur des outils analytiques issus des SHS, nous démontrons que la censure sur Facebook, Twitter et BBM proposée par le Premier ministre britannique David Cameron aura comme conséquence une augmentation du niveau de violence.

http://paolatubaro.wordpress.com/2011/08/11/is-a-social-media-fuelled-uprising-the-worst-case-scenario-elements-for-a-sociology-of-uk-riots/

Is a social media-fuelled uprising the worst case scenario? Elements for a sociology of UK riots « Paola Tubaro’s Blog via kwout

Il s’agit d’un exemple de just-in-time sociology pour aider la prise de décision publique dans un moment historique où les libertés démocratiques sont prêtes à être sacrifiées en échange d’un sens de sécurité illusoire. Le texte a suscité beaucoup d’intérêt et de réactions positives ces derniers jours. De milliers de lecteurs, l’ont partagé en ligne et tweeté. Ceci est, dans notre cas, un franc succès : en dehors du monde universitaire, les lecteurs ne sont – paraît-il – que rarement intéressés par un essai de 15.000 signes contenant un apparat assez lourd de graphes, tableaux et un code de logiciel complet… Nos blogs sont des outils d’accompagnement à la recherche, visant surtout un public de spécialistes. Mais enfin, ce bon résultat nous confirme que, malgré les efforts de l’establishment britannique d’instiller une véritable “haine de la sociologie”, l’opinion publique a soif de comprendre les mécanismes sociaux à l’œuvre dans la situation actuelle.

Ps. Les excellents retours et commentaires reçus sur le billet, nous ont permis d’affiner l’analyse encore davantage et de finaliser un article scientifique tiré du texte. Why net censorship in times of political unrest results in more violent uprisings: A social simulation experiment on the UK riots est déjà disponible dans l’archive en ligne SSRN (Social Science Research Network), et il a été soumis à une revue scientifique. Croisons nos doigts !

[Update 23/08/11] Notre étude est à aujourd’hui dans la top 10 des plus téléchargées du SSRN (dans plusieurs catégories, telles ‘Computational Models’, ‘Conflict Resolution’, ‘Social & Political Philosophy’, ‘Microeconomic Theory’, etc). Le billet de blog a été aussi traduit en français et publié sur OWNI.fr : Censure des médias sociaux: éléments pour une sociologie des émeutes britanniques.
Voilà aussi une petite revue de presse en ligne, détaillant les principaux sites Web qui ont parlé de nous :

Is a social media-fuelled uprising the worst case scenario? Elements for a sociology of UK riots

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By Antonio A. Casilli & Paola Tubaro. French version provided by OWNI.fr.

“It's time we heard a little bit less about the economic and sociological justifications for what is in my view nothing less than wanton criminality”. (Boris Johnson, public speech London, Aug 9, 2011)

“We are not social scientists. We have to deal with urgent situations” (Paul McKeever, Police Federation Chairman, SkyNews Aug 11, 2011)

“Nowadays sabotaging the social machine involves reappropriating and reinventing the ways of interrupting its networks”. (The Invisible Committee, The Coming Insurrection, Semiotext(e), 2009, p. 112)

This is the first of a series of joint posts of Bodyspacesociety + Paola Tubaro’s Blog. You are kindly invited to visit both websites, featuring plenty of interesting stuff.

Why social media bring democracy to developing countries and anarchy to rich ones?

O sublime hypocrisy of European mainstream media! The same technologies that a few months ago were glorified for single-handedly bringing down dictators during the Arab Spring, are now at the core of an unprecedented moral panic for their alleged role in fuelling UK August 2011 riots. In a recent post, Christian Fuchs rightly maintains:

http://fuchs.uti.at/667/

Social Media and the UK Riots: “Twitter Mobs”, “Facebook Mobs”, “Blackberry Mobs” and the Structural Violence of Neoliberalism | Christian Fuchs

And, o! exquisite refinement in the ancient art of double standard: the same conservative press that indignantly deplored dictators’ censorship of online communication, now call for plain suppression of entire telecommunication networks – as unashamedly exemplified by this piece in the Daily Mail.

Fact is, moral panic about social media is the specular reflection of the acritical enthusiasm about these very same technologies. They both spring from the same technological determinism that acclaims new gimmicks and buzzwords to smooth away the economic and social roots of unrest.
Having said that, what can we, as social scientists, say about the role of social media in assisting or even encouraging widespread political conflict? Very little indeed, insofar as we do not have data on actual social media use and traffic during riots. It would take months to gather that data – and who can wait for so long in a media environment that spits out “quick and dirty” analyses by the hour?

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